Ukraine: heading into recession
In the runup to Ukraine’s October 28 parliamentary election, polls show that the majority of Ukrainians want change, a break from the autocratic rule of President Viktor Yanukovich. They aren’t alone. Ukraine is heading into its second recession in four years. Businesses and investors on the ground see the investment climate getting much worse for everyone – except Yanukovich’s billionaire oligarch backers. Next week’s election is for parliament only – the presidency won’t be contended until 2015. But by voting in large numbers for the opposition, Ukrainians are expected to voice a deepening dissatisfaction with the Yanukovich regime. “In 3Q Ukraine went into a recession. We downgrade our real GDP forecast for 2012 to 0%. GDP dynamics in 3Q and 4Q will be negative,” Austria’s Erste Bank said in a note to investors this week. Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research “[Economic] activity is sluggish as foreign demand remains weak and maintaining the UAH:USD [currency]